Leaving the United States in 2026: Where Americans and Immigrants Are Going

For the first time in over half a century, more people are leaving the United States than arriving. Brookings Institution estimates net migration was between -295,000 and -10,000 for 2025, and projects it could reach -925,000 in 2026. This isn't just policy — it's a structural shift affecting both American citizens looking abroad and immigrants reconsidering their US plans.

"Continued negative net migration for 2026 is likely. The slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth."

— Brookings Institution, January 2026

Why People Are Leaving

The drivers are different depending on who you are. For US citizens: cost of living (housing in particular), healthcare costs, political polarisation, desire for better work-life balance, remote work enabling geographic freedom, and retirement affordability. For immigrants in the US: the expanded travel ban affecting 39 countries, USCIS pausing benefit adjudications for travel ban nationals, OPT/STEM uncertainty, H-1B fee increases ($100,000 for some petitions), SEVIS revocations, and a hostile policy environment.

The Numbers

Where They're Going

For US Citizens: The DAFT Advantage

Americans have a unique advantage most don't know about: the Dutch-American Friendship Treaty (DAFT). For just €4,500 in registered capital, US citizens can obtain a self-employment residence permit in the Netherlands. No job offer needed. No minimum revenue requirement in year one. Renewable annually. Path to permanent residency after 5 years. This is the lowest-barrier legal entry point to the EU for Americans.

Other American-specific advantages: the E-2 Treaty Investor visa available in 80+ countries (invest and operate a business), Social Security totalization agreements with 30 countries (your credits count abroad), and the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion ($126,500 in 2024) reducing US tax burden while abroad. Note: US citizens must file US taxes regardless of where they live.

For Immigrants Reconsidering the US

If you're on a work visa, student visa, or in the green card backlog, the current environment may make other countries more attractive. H-1B holders: Canada launched a specific stream to attract US-based H-1B workers. The UK, Germany, and Australia all have skilled worker pathways that don't require employer lottery. F-1 students facing OPT uncertainty: Canada's PGWP (1-3 years post-study work, no lottery), Australia's 485 visa (2-4 years), and Germany's 18-month post-study job search are all more predictable.

The 39-country travel ban plus USCIS benefit adjudication pauses mean that nationals of affected countries face compounding uncertainty. If you're from Nigeria, Sudan, Iran, Haiti, Afghanistan, or any of the other restricted nations, building a Plan B outside the US is not pessimistic — it's prudent.

How to Plan Your Exit

Before leaving: research tax obligations (US citizens file worldwide income; exit tax may apply for green card holders with 8+ years), transfer financial accounts (Wise for multi-currency), understand healthcare gaps, and validate professional credentials in your target country. Start the visa application 6-12 months before your planned move. Don't quit your US job before securing legal status elsewhere.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the US really experiencing negative net migration?

Yes. Brookings Institution estimates net migration was between -295,000 and -10,000 for 2025 — the first negative year in 50+ years. For 2026, projections range from -925,000 to +185,000, meaning continued negative migration is the most likely scenario.

What is the cheapest country to move to from the US?

Mexico ($800-1,500/month), Portugal (€1,200-2,000), Costa Rica ($1,200-2,000), and Spain (€1,000-1,800) offer the best cost-to-quality ratios. Mexico has the advantage of proximity and no time zone issues for remote work.

Can I keep my US benefits if I move abroad?

Social Security: yes, payments continue to most countries. Medicare: no, it doesn't cover care abroad. 401k/IRA: accessible but tax implications vary by destination. US taxes: citizens must file regardless of residence. Consult a cross-border tax specialist.

Which countries are actively recruiting Americans?

The Netherlands (DAFT treaty), Portugal (D7 and Digital Nomad visas), Canada (Express Entry + H-1B poaching stream), Germany (Chancenkarte), and Spain (Digital Nomad visa) all have clear pathways for US citizens or residents.

How long does this process typically take?

Timelines vary significantly depending on the pathway and destination country. Document preparation takes 4-8 weeks, language tests require 2-3 months of advance booking, credential evaluation takes 4-12 weeks, and visa processing ranges from 2 weeks (some work permits) to 12+ months (family sponsorship). Build in a 25-50% buffer over official processing estimates, as delays are common during peak application seasons.

What documents do I need to prepare before applying?

Essential documents typically include a valid passport (with 6+ months validity), birth certificate, police clearance certificate, educational credentials with apostille, proof of funds (bank statements for 3-6 months), and passport-sized photographs meeting destination country specifications. Start gathering documents 3-4 months before your intended application date, as apostilles and police clearances can take 4-8 weeks.

Should I hire an immigration consultant or apply myself?

For straightforward visa categories (tourist, student, digital nomad), self-application is feasible using official government portals. For complex pathways (skilled worker points systems, investment visas, family sponsorship), a registered immigration consultant can increase approval chances and reduce processing delays. Always verify consultants are licensed by the destination country's immigration authority. Budget EUR 1,500-5,000 for professional assistance.

What are common reasons visa applications get rejected?

The most frequent rejection reasons are: insufficient proof of funds, incomplete documentation, failure to demonstrate ties to home country (for temporary visas), gaps in employment history without explanation, criminal record issues, and health-related concerns. Always address potential red flags proactively in your application with supporting evidence and honest explanations.